SME Export Indicator Q1 2015: Optimism and new markets Donnerstag, 15. Januar 2015 - 10:12
Export sentiment among Swiss SMEs heading into Q4 2014 is a bit less optimistic than it was at the start of the prior quarter. Although the survey conducted by Switzerland Global Enterprise (S-GE) indicates that all sectors of industry expect exports to increase in the months ahead, the anticipated growth is less broad-based geographically than in previous quarters. While the USA has confirmed its role as a growth engine, signs are pointing to stagnation in the Eurozone, according to the Credit Suisse Export Barometer.
The Credit Suisse Export Barometer, which tracks foreign demand for Swiss products, currently stands at a level of 0.94, marking the first time since more than a year that the indicator has slipped back below the historical average of 1.00. However, export expectations for Q4 2014 remain guardedly upbeat because the indicator reading is still hovering well above the expansion threshold of 0.
Lukas Gehrig from Credit Suisse Economic Research explains that “demand from the Eurozone, particularly from Germany and France, is likely to remain muted in the months ahead. This dims the export outlook for Swiss SMEs because those two countries account for a good third of total Swiss export revenues.” Nevertheless, the S-GE export sentiment survey of a panel of around 200 Swiss small and midsize enterprises has yielded an SME export outlook index reading of 60.8 points, which is still well above the 50-point threshold that denotes expansion. The survey results thus continue to point to rising exports.
“Europe will remain very important for Switzerland’s export sector, but Swiss exporters would be well advised to diversify their exports wherever possible. Looking westward could pay off in the future for Swiss SMEs. In a tough overall environment for exporters, the USA is providing powerful growth stimulus,” opines Alberto Silini, the Head of Consulting at S-GE. For instance, 41% of the SMEs surveyed by S-GE plan to export to the USA during the fourth quarter of 2014, up from 38% in the prior quarter (multiple answers possible). The percentage of Swiss SMEs that intend to export to Europe remains stable at 92%. Fifty-four percent of Swiss SMEs intend to export to the Asia-Pacific region over the next six months, 48% to North America, 28% to the Middle East/Africa region and 20% to South America.
Webcast on the topic of current export sentiment with Lukas Gehrig from Credit Suisse Economic Research and Alberto Silini, the Head of Consulting at Switzerland Global Enterprise (German):
The SME Export Indicator for the first quarter of 2015 will be published on January 15, 2015
