UBS Consumption Indicator: year ends optimistically Mittwoch, 27. Januar 2016 - 08:41

Zurich 27 Jan 2016, 08:00 Media Releases Switzerland

The UBS Consumption Indicator rose to 1.62 points in December from 1.55. Consumer sentiment improved somewhat toward the end of the year, but retailers did not share this confidence. We assume private consumption will continue trending upward.

Zurich, 27 January 2016 – Consumer sentiment will likely start the year strong despite a seasonal increase in the unemployment rate in December. As low interest rates provide little incentive to save, people tend to consume more. Consumer prices are still falling, with much of the decline attributable to energy prices in general and crude oil in particular. Lower energy expenses leave more disposable income available, and thus should increase consumer spending.

Survey figures from the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich indicate that retailers expected the business situation to worsen in December in month-on-month comparison. They believed that consumers are shopping more abroad and spending less in general due to economic conditions. However, initial reports from retailers indicate that Christmas sales were better than anticipated.

Sources: Seco, UBS

How the UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated
The UBS Consumption Indicator signals private consumption trends in Switzerland with a lead time of one to three months on the official figures. At more than 50%, private consumption is by far the most important component of Swiss GDP. UBS calculates this leading indicator from six consumer-related parameters: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays by Swiss residents, the consumer sentiment index, employment figures and credit card transactions made via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. With the exception of the consumer sentiment index and employment figures, all of this data is available monthly.

UBS Switzerland AG

Media contact

Dominik Studer, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Phone +41-44-234 81 74, dominik.studer@ubs.com

Sibille Duss, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Phone +41-44-235 69 54, sibille.duss@ubs.com

UBS publications and forecasts for Switzerland: www.ubs.com/cio-swiss-views