Credit Suisse: The Swiss Population's Trio of Worries: Unemployment, Foreigners, Retirement Provision Mittwoch, 30. November 2016 - 09:00

The main worries of the Swiss population are: unemployment, issues related to foreigners, and retirement provision. Transportation matters are now attracting more attention and there is also a stronger desire for Switzerland to continue its bilateral agreements with the EU.

For 40 years, Credit Suisse has been asking Swiss voters about their worries and what they consider to be key aspects of the country's identity. "The idea of launching the Worry Barometer was visionary," commented Lukas Golder, Co-Head of gfs.bern.

As has been the case for over a decade, unemployment – including youth unemployment – is once again listed as the most important concern this year: 45% of survey participants named it as one of their principal worries. However, this figure marked a significant decline in the number of respondents worried about unemployment compared to last year and also compared to the long-term average. In addition to pensions (28%), the relationship with foreigners in general (36%) and with refugees in particular (26%) also ranked among the main concerns named by respondents since 2012. Dr. René Buholzer, Head of Public Policy and Sustainability at Credit Suisse, stated: "The concerns are becoming more diverse: Previously, there would be two or three main worries mentioned by the majority of respondents. Today, the popularity of these main concerns has diminished and many minor worries have been added instead."

The issue of transportation now features among the top-ten concerns. Should the train system be favored for environmental reasons or should railways and roads be treated strictly as equals? This question has been heavily debated in connection with the opening of the Gotthard base tunnel. After the rejection of the ‘For Fair Transportation Financing’ initiative (the so called ‘Milchkuhinitiative’), the referendum on the National Road and Agglomeration Transportation Fund (NAF) will be held in February 2017. Fears that the euro crisis may be reignited and that the Swiss franc may subsequently come under pressure have somewhat faded into the background.

High Level of Confidence in Politicians and Business

Traditionally, the Swiss public has had the most confidence in the Federal Supreme Court and the police. The acceptance of political decision-makers has significantly increased in recent years. This year, the Council of States and the Federal Council enjoyed a very high degree of confidence. The most significant confidence gains, coming up from a relatively low level in some cases, were made by employer and employee organizations, NGOs, the European Union, and free newspapers. Dr. René Buholzer commented: "As with concerns, there is also a convergence in confidence. The differences have become smaller – all players are deemed trustworthy by an absolute majority."

Switzerland Benefits from Neutrality and Quality

Voters regard Swiss quality, education, and neutrality as the country’s main strengths. Along with security, peace and the landscape, neutrality is considered one of the most important hallmarks of Switzerland. While the Swiss used to believe the identity of the country was being threatened almost exclusively by external factors, they now consider internal problems to be a comparable threat. 33% think that Switzerland’s identity is "very compromised" by immigration, 31% by rising egoism in Switzerland, 22% by the EU and 22% by political polarization in their own country.

Highly Regarded by Other Countries

More than half of those surveyed believe that Switzerland's image abroad has improved in the last year. Accordingly, 92% describe the country’s image abroad as rather good (54%) or even very good (38%). This assessment is based on an economic comparison in particular. 97% believe that Switzerland’s economy is performing better than the economies of other countries, with 28% rating it as very good and 69% as rather good. For 18% of the population, the general economic situation has improved over the last year; for 63%, it has remained the same. Respondents assigned an even better rating to their personal economic situation: 19% say it has improved, 73% say it has remained the same.

Clear Commitment to the Bilateral Agreements

With regard to Switzerland’s future relationship with the EU, Dr. René Buholzer stated: "Public opinion among the population has come a long way. The desire to maintain bilateral agreements has increased this year." 81% are in favor of the bilateral agreements as a first or second priority, while 19% support termination, and 10% are in favor of accession to the EU. Accession to the European Economic Area (50%) would attract a similarly high level of acceptance. The undecided percentage (7%) has decreased significantly.

Overview: The Ten Most Important Insights from the 2016 Credit Suisse Worry Barometer

1. Unemployment and youth unemployment remain the main worry of the Swiss but, in contrast to the long-term average, no longer for the majority of the population.
2. Issues related to foreigners or refugees and asylum are also key concerns but there is no emphasis on this despite the debate about the implementation of the initiative against mass immigration and the mass movement of refugees around the world.
3. Fewer voters see retirement provision as a key worry than in previous years. However, when asked about the most urgent problem and future problems, AHV ranks top among those concerns.
4. The willingness to regulate the relationship with the EU through the continuation of the bilateral agreements has increased.
5. The Federal Supreme Court and the police continue to enjoy the highest level of confidence among the Swiss population.
6. The increased trust in politics seen in recent years has continued. For the first time, the Council of States ranks ahead of the Federal Council in terms of trust.
7. Neutrality, quality, and education are Switzerland’s main strengths.
8. Security/peace, neutrality, and the landscape are the hallmarks of the country.
9. According to its voters, Switzerland has a very good reputation abroad, based on a strong economy and leading to political self-confidence.
10.  The respondents’ personal financial situation and the general economic climate are judged mostly positively, with an optimistic view of the future.

Worry Barometer: A Representative Survey

What are the key concerns of people in Switzerland? How much confidence do they have in decision-makers in the fields of politics, business, and society? For the past 40 years, Credit Suisse has conducted an annual Worry and Identity Barometer survey to examine these issues. Between July 4 and 23, 2016, the research institute gfs.bern asked 1,010 voters throughout Switzerland about their concerns on behalf of Credit Suisse. Respondents could select their five main concerns from a list of 37.

This year, the Credit Suisse Bulletin not only presents the most important results from the current survey but  also provides a comprehensive history of Swiss sensitivities through Worry Barometer surveys dating back to 1976.

The detailed analyses of the study, including information graphics, can be found at: www.credit-suisse.com/worrybarometer

When using the results, please make reference to the ‘Credit Suisse Worry Barometer’.