Unigestion: Beobachten Sie 2017 Frankreich und Italien Montag, 05. Dezember 2016 - 18:01

Sehr geehrter Herr Guglielmetti

Florian Ielpo, Head of Macroeconomic Research, Stéphane Dutu, Fundamental Risk Analyst und Jeremy Gatto, Trader geben im Folgenden ihre Analyse zum Votum in Italien. 

"Although the rejection of the referendum is not a game changer, we believe it is another sign of the surge in anti-establishment voting which has shaken the foundations of the European Union, and has consequences for investors' portfolios. One potential way for investors to offset this risk can be to utilise foreign exchange and equity volatility as outlined two months ago in our Perspectives paper "Managing political risk in investment portfolios". 

The rejection of the referendum was widely expected in financial markets. With the consensus already for the European Central Bank to maintain its stimulative policy, at least in the short term, and macroeconomic data in Europe coming out a little better than expected, our market scenario remains the same: stronger economic growth, reflation, central bank policy to become more hawkish, and uncertainty to remain elevated.

The real political game changer is likely to come next year, with elections in the Netherlands in March, France in April and Germany in August 2017. From an investment perspective, we will be watching the level of popular support for the Front National/ Front de Gauche in France and Alternative für Deutschland/ Die Linke in Germany very carefully, and investors should expect further widening of sovereign spreads against German debt should anti-EU political forces continue to gain favour with voters.

Mit freundlichen Grüssen

Markus Baumgartner