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Swiss Re Institute: US economic outlook: roll-off of fiscal support and debt drag suggest a medium-term slowdown Mittwoch, 05. Mai 2021 - 15:24

By Jerome Jean Haegeli, Group Chief Economist, Swiss Re Institute & Thomas Holzheu, Chief Economist Americas, Swiss Re Institute & Jake Meyer, Senior Economist, Swiss Re Institute
Published on:14 Apr 2021

Pent-up savings and dispersal of stimulus should drive GDP growth this year and next. We anticipate lower medium-term growth as the stimulus ends, taxes rise to fund a multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure package, and higher debt loads create a drag.

The key takeaways are as follows:
  • We keep our 2021 forecasts for GDP growth at 6.5%, inflation at 2.5%, and 10-year sovereign yields at 1.8%.
  • Rising corporate and public debt loads suggest a future growth drag, but we see associated systemic risk as low.
  • While downside risks of federal taxes hikes have risen, risks remain balanced.
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ECONOMIC OUTLOOKUS economic outlook: roll-off of fiscal support and debt drag suggest a medium-term slowdown
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